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November Multifamily Update: Stable Current Renters, Nervous Prospective Renters
While 2025 hasn't played out as apartment investors hoped, we do see green shoots of recovery amidst a bag of mixed signals.
Jay Parsons
November 18, 2025
Today’s edition sponsored by: JPI, Madera Residential, X-Caliber and Foxen.
Where does the apartment market stand as of today?
Here’s my take – admittedly through some foggy lenses right now – on the current state of the U.S. apartment market here in November 2025:
CURRENT renters are doing fine, at least for now.
PROSPECTIVE renters are (mostly) sidelined.
I think those two simple statements sum it all up, and I’m not trying to be trite. It may not be true tomorrow or one month from now, but I really believe that’s true as of the publishing date of this newsletter. It was also the sentiment among most of the apartment REITs during their earnings calls in recent weeks.
As I wrote last month, there’s plenty of red meat data for both the bears and the bulls to chew on right now. What you choose to chew on likely reflects which side you’ve staked your tent on.
For most CURRENT renters, there’s no real sign yet of any real distress. No signs of increased rental delinquency, no signs of doubling up, no signs of a “flight to affordability” (in fact, it’s still more of the opposite) and no signs of increased turnover.
On their recent earnings call, EQR’s Mark Parrell said his company sees no “signs of customer financial distress.”
Camden’s Keith Oden (who’s been at it for 30+ years at CPT) added that apartment managers “know immediately when people start losing their jobs because they move out.. It’s almost automatic … and we’re not seeing that.”
So that part is good. And let’s not be among those allergic to good news. But we can point out the good news while also acknowledging the bad news: In-bound leasing traffic appears to be slowing in some parts of the country – notably in some previously strong markets now seeing negative economic headlines, like Boston and Washington, D.C.
Many PROSPECTIVE renters appear to be sidelined, frozen in temporary living arrangements as they wait out better times. There’s clearly a correlation between low leasing traffic and low consumer sentiment: When people feel nervous, they’re less likely to make a major decision – like relocating to sign a new lease. Of course, the soft job market for new college grads (a key source of apartment demand) likely isn’t helping, either. That’s all pent-up demand for better days.
The irony? It’s very much a renter’s market today.
Rents are falling in half of the nation’s 150 largest MSAs, and still predominantly in the hottest-demand markets.
Concession values are the richest today in 15 years.
And renters have a lot of available options thanks to the biggest supply wave in a half century – opening up not only brand-new luxury buildings, but also pushing up vacancy in older, cheaper units as some of the better-off renters in those units move up.
But that’s typically how it works: When supply exceeds demand, renters can usually find better deals. When demand exceeds supply, pricing power usually intensify.
Rent growth evaporates even as occupancy holds stable
Most rent tracking focuses on new lease rents, and given more supply than demand in much of the country plus weak consumer sentiment, it’s no surprise that operators continue to give on pricing to protect occupancy.
For the most part, that strategy has worked. Yardi and RealPage both reported slight IMPROVEMENT of 10 bps year-over-year in stabilized occupancy rates (though CoStar did report a slight decline), and most REITs reported similar success.
But here’s the rub: To keep occupancy high, you’re competing on price – even for renters who can easily afford it. Renters “expect a deal,” as Camden’s Ric Campo said, so to get units filled in this environment you have to play ball.
CoStar reported an October rent cut of 0.31% nationally. While not drastic, it was still the deepest October rent cut in 15 years. CoStar also added: “Three of the five steepest monthly rent reductions over the past fifteen years have occurred within the last three months.” Those aforementioned month-over-month cuts ranged from 0.21% to 0.31%, taking year-over-year change to a still-positive-but-barely at +0.8%.
Rents are falling (or rent growth levels are cooling) not only in high-supplied markets, but also in select coastal markets with softening demand – notably Washington DC, Boston, San Diego and Los Angeles.
But rents continue to increase in markets with low supply plus steadier/improving demand, led by San Francisco, San Jose, New York and Chicago. All major data providers listed those four among the top rent growth markets, with others mentioned including Pittsburgh, Virginia Beach, Minneapolis, Milwaukee and Cincinnati.
AND we’re also seeing green shoots of improved rent momentum (in some cases, rents still falling but to lesser degrees) in higher-supplied markets like Atlanta, Orlando, San Antonio, Austin and Denver -- places where rents are still falling, but at a lesser degree than previously. Several REITs said similar in recent weeks, and listed Dallas among those with improvement.
Yardi also noted occupancy improvement in some high-supplied markets, reporting: “Several high-supply markets—led by Atlanta (0.9% year-over-year), Charlotte (0.5%), Phoenix, Nashville and Orlando (all 0.3%)—posted occupancy gains due to strong annual absorption. Even Austin and Denver, which were flat year-over-year, managed to avoid declines.”
Despite the bit of momentum, Austin and Denver rank among the weakest rent markets for most big data providers. Phoenix and Tucson are usually in that group, too.
Bottom line: It’s still a story of mixed signals. The end to the government shutdown could certainly help, especially in the D.C. area. But the next jobs and inflation reports – once they get released following a one-month hiatus thanks to the shutdown – will likely carry outsized influence, as well, particularly for employers.
Other Highlights
First, it was RealPage. Now CoStar and Yardi, too, have revised down their forecasts for apartment rent growth.
Is absorption cooling? Yardi says that “even though the [absorption] trend shows weakening, it would be jumping the gun to read too much into one quarter of data, especially since regions with short-term weakness have performed well.”
ULI just released its annual Emerging Trends in Real Estate report. Every year, it surveys investors on trends and top markets. Top 10 markets (for all real estate) in the 2026 report are Dallas, Jersey City, Miami, Brooklyn, Houston, Nashville, Northern New Jersey, Tampa / St. Petersburg, Manhattan and Phoenix.
CBRE reports that apartment sales transaction volumes jumped 18.2% quarter-over-quarter and by 10.3% year-over-year. CBRE’s report also shows big increases in previously sluggish coastal markets like New York, San Francisco and Seattle. Cap rates used to underwrite deals held steady at 5.7%.
Colliers writes that there’s finally an uptick in distressed deals hitting the market. “Distress is emerging. Special servicers are becoming more active, and deals completed at the peak of the market are beginning to face refinancing and valuation headwinds. This environment is creating compelling acquisition targets.”
Colliers also writes: “Capital is plentiful, supporting multifamily investment sales activity. Pent-up buy-side pressure is building for investors, and while cap rates remain around 5%, competition for assets is high.”
Principal Asset Management published an interesting paper on the CRE recovery path, noting (among other things) that in measuring trough-to-current pricing among property types, apartment and senior housing lead the way. But more interestingly, they note that “returns are diverging sharply across property types, geographies, and funds — exposing a market ripe for active alpha generation.”
— My Latest Posts on LinkedIn —
Here are some recent posts if you missed them:
New York City voters, in their mayoral election, didn’t reject a free market rental housing system … because NYC hasn’t had actual free market rental housing in about a century.
Whenever there’s weakness in the economy, there’s an itch to immediately assume renters must be in distress.
Yes, renters are renting longer today. But that doesn’t mean they’ll rent with YOU longer.
Did the leasing season start AND end earlier than usual in 2025?
Don’t assume the rise in leasing fraud is always linked to rental affordability challenges.
SFR REITs say they are priced out of homebuying.
REITs say their stocks are trading at significant discounts versus net asset value.
Institutions and REITs comprise a growing share of multifamily buyers.
Are apartment execs giving up on the “Survive til 2025” mantra?
Here’s an updated look at the absolute dominance (note the sarcasm) of institutional investors on the single-family housing market.
— Now Spinning on The Rent Roll Podcast —
The Rent Roll with Jay Parsons podcast continues to frequently rank on Apple’s charts for investing-themed podcasts, and was recently ranked as the third-best podcast in all commercial real estate (and #1 in housing) by the readers of CRE Daily! Thank you for helping us grow so quickly. New episodes are released every Thursday morning.
*DROPPING THURSDAY* Episode 60: Overlooked Tertiary Markets
Episode 59: 5 Takeaways from the SFR REITs’ Q3’25 Earnings Calls Plus a Conversation with Progress Residential’s CEO, Dave Feldman
Episode 58: 5 Takeaways from the Apartment REITs’ Q3’25 Earnings Calls with Mizuho Americas’ Haendel St. Juste
Episode 57: Is It Time to Worry? Plus a Conversation with Middleburg’s CEO, Chris Finlay.
Episode 56: Budgeting Season: Tips for 2026 with Gables Residential’s Sue Ansel
Episode 55: Q4’25 Apartment Market Update & Outlook with Kettler’s Alyson Bode
Episode 54: Is Now the Time to Build Again? with JPI’s Payton Mayes, Mollie Fadule and Kyley Harvey.
Episode 53: The Case for Family-Friendly Class A Apartments with Bobby Fijan
